制度缺失与储蓄替代——中国农户防卫性储蓄机制的行为发现与理论检验

运用统计图解方法研究，发现中国农户家庭偏好中存在防卫性机制。适当选取模型和计量工具，随后的参数检验也证实防卫性机制存在。防卫性储蓄是金融保险制度缺失条件下的行为替代，决策应沿着合理利用这一行为机制来思考，以建立城乡一体的国家社保体系。

Missing Institution and Savings Substitution: Precautionary Savings of Chinese Farm Households and Hypothesis Test

Our graphical statistics reveals that a behavioural mechanism under the precautionary motive exists in China's farm household preferences. An intertemporal, dynamic household model is modified to accommodate the precautionary motive. Proper econometric instruments are selected to prove the existence of the precautionary behaviour. The policy implication is that, for avoiding the rural and urban demarcation, China should incorporate rural precautionary savings into the establishment of its national social safety net.