经济快速增长背景下长江经济带GDP与“三废”排量响应关系分析

选取1990年代以来长江经济带环境污染和经济增长的主要指标进行分析,结果表明：人均GDP与工业＂三废＂、SO2排放量之间均呈四次曲线关系,不符合典型的EKC;工业废气总量和SO2排放量曲线都呈近似于＂倒U型＂EKC的左半部分,前者没有转折迹象,后者则表现出转折的迹象;工业废水排放量曲线近似于＂正U型＂与＂倒U型＂的叠加,且波动变化平缓;工业固体废物排放量曲线近似于＂倒U型＂EKC的右半部分,但呈现回升迹象;政府有关政策措施与环境质量改善的关系密切。

Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between GDP and Discharge of the "Three Industrial Wastes" in the Yangtze Economic Zone

The paper uses the main indicators of environmental change and economic growth from 1991 to 2007 of the Yangtze Economic Zone,which includes seven provinces and two municipalities.It analyses the relationship between GDP per capita and total volume of industrial waste gas,S02 emission,wastewater discharge and solid wastes discharge of the Yangtze Economic Zone, through using econometrical statistics model of correlation analysis.It concludes that:the correlation of the GDP per capita and volume of industrial waste-gas emission,waste-water and solid-wastes discharged all fit the shape of quartics,but not the inverted "U" EKC;the curve of total volume of industrial waste gas and S02 emission conforms with the left part of the inverted "U" EKC;The curve of volume of industrial wastewater discharged conforms with the shape of "U + inverted U",and the fluctuating is gently;The volume of industrial solid wastes discharged conforms with the right part of the inverted "U" EKC;the policy and measures enacted by government have large effect in change the contaminative environment.Finally,based on the above discussion, it puts forward major strategical countermeasures to promote the coordination between economic growth and environmental protection in the Yangtze Economic Zone.