| 不确定性、学习与新技术序列投资决策 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢小强,仝允桓. 不确定性、学习与新技术序列投资决策[J]. 管理科学学报, 2010, 13(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢小强 仝允桓 |
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| 作者单位： | 对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,北京,100029;清华大学技术创新研究中心,北京,100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年资助项目(70802013);;国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(70233001);;对外经济贸易大学校级课题资助项目(08QD11) |
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| 摘 要： | 以不同性质不确定性与其解决方式(学习)和效率对投资价值的影响为切入点,研究新技术序列投资行为背后的决策机制与路径.在现有研究基础上,引入企业内部学习的异质性特征,把技术不确定性的解决效率分解为学习能力、累积学习效应与边际学习效应3个层次进行讨论.运用实物期权方法构建包含学习效应的新技术序列投资决策模型,并得到最优决策规则,通过数值方法对不同参数进行比较静态分析,并阐述结果的经济与管理涵义.
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| 关 键 词： | 序列投资 实物期权 不确定性 学习效率 |
Uncertainty, learning and new technology sequential investment decision |
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| XING Xiao-qiang,TONG Yun-huan. Uncertainty, learning and new technology sequential investment decision[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2010, 13(3) |
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| Authors: | XING Xiao-qiang TONG Yun-huan |
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| Affiliation: | XING Xiao-qiang1,TONG Yun-huan21.School of International Business,University of International Business , Economics,Beijing 100029,China,2.Research Center for Technological Innovation,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the implicit mechanism supporting the new technology sequential investment decision from the perspective of the ways and efficiency of the resolution of different types of uncertainty embedded in the project.After comparing the relevant models,the paper introduces the learning heterogeneity in the resolving efficiency of the technical uncertainty,which is determined by learning capability,accumulated learning effect and marginal learning effect.Finally,this paper adopts the real options ... |
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| Keywords: | sequential investment real option uncertainty learning efficiency |
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