新一轮通胀的特征、成因与二元经济下的通货管理转型

CPI与PPI波动呈分异趋势、PPI对经济增长的敏感性增大、物价上涨的结构性特征显著及通胀效应大等特征说明新一轮通胀有着深层的结构性原因。基于货币供给软约束框架分析了结构性通胀的运行机理。指出M2的过快增长伴随着贷款产值比的下降削弱了稳定通货的基础,输入性通胀因素的不断强化加大了通货管理的难度;因农业与工业劳动生产率的差距过大而形成的农业工资推动的通货膨胀是刘易斯拐点后出现的一种新型通胀,它是"滞胀"的潜形式。推动工资与农产品价格上涨的原因并不是劳动力供给"短缺",而是工资定价机制的转型与劳动生产率差距过大的结合。通货管理应由应急型的以"总量调控"为主的粗放型管理模式,转为更加强调结构性手段运用和绩效的长期稳定的模式。

The Characteristics and Causes of a New Round of Inflation and Transformation of Currency Management in the Dualistic Economy

The fluctuations of CPI and PPI are now presenting a tendency of differentiation, the sensitivity of PPI to economic growth is increasing, structural characteristics of rising price are becoming remarkable and inflation has great influence. All those features indicate that there are deep structural reasons for a new round of inflation. This article analyzes operational mechanism of structural inflation, based on the soft constraint frame of money supply. It pointed out that the rapid growth of M2 together with the decline in the proportion of loans and output weaken the foundation of stable currency, and thecontinuously strengthened factor of imported inflation increases the difficulty of the management of inflation. A new type of inflation which is promoted by agricultural salary, because of the increasing gap between agriculture labor productivity and industrial labor productivity, is emerging after Lewis turning point appears. It is a latent form of stagflation. At the moment, the reason for promoting the wages and prices of agricultural products is not labor supply shortages, but combination of transformation of wage pricing mechanism and much of the labor productivity gap between agriculture and industrial. Currency management should be transformed from the emergency and extensive management pattern, which mainly based on the ＂total amount control＂ , to one pattern that make more emphasis on the usage of structural means and on the stable and long--term achievements.