“福利赶超”与“增长陷阱”:拉美的教训

20世纪80年代拉美经济经历了"失去的十年",90年代的增长也乏善可陈。对这一问题的反思,国内基本以总结新自由主义的教训为主。但事实上,对拉美影响深远且至今仍充满活力的却是民粹主义的福利赶超。我们的分析表明,福利赶超在相当大的程度上影响了拉美的发展历程,其教训主要体现在3个方面:一是忽视发展阶段的经济赶超;二是忽视财政限制的福利赶超;三是忽视市场机制的政府主导。总结拉美民粹主义福利赶超的教训,对于当前中国发展的政策含义在于:(1)重视初次分配的重要性;(2)提高社会保障水平应与发展阶段相适应;(3)打造民生工程应尊重市场机制。

Welfare Catch-up and Growth Trap: Lessons from Latin America

Latin America's economy experienced the lost decade in 1980s and modest growth in 1990s. Regarding this issue, many argue that it can be explained by the prevalent practice of new liberalism in Latin America. But our paper shows that the fundamental reason could be the populist welfare catch -up that has been strongly shaping the development of Latin America for several decades. The lessons drawn from the populist pursuit of redistribution are the economic catch-up neglecting the development stage, the welf...