危机决策:一个基于信息流的分析框架

危机决策是危机管理的核心。信息是危机决策的重要基础和核心要素,危机决策是一个信息处理和交流的系统,也是一个信息的输入、处理、输出的过程。本文根据危机信息来源的不同,将导致危机决策过程中信息发生偏差的原因归纳为垂直历时性传递过程中地方封锁信息、水平共时性传递过程中部门隔离信息以及社会信息渠道无法进入决策系统从而导致系统封闭信息三个方面。因此,改进政府危机决策,必须克服信息封锁、信息隔离、信息封闭三方面的障碍,建立健全覆盖全面、公开透明、高效便捷的信息处理和交流系统,为危机决策奠定坚实的信息基础。

Crisis Decision-Making: an Analytical Framework Based on Information Flow

Crisis creates high levels of uncertainty and, concomitantly, creates increased needs for information, thus information is the single most valuable asset for crisis decision-making. To examine the information flow problems in the communication processes within and between organizations and regions, to and from organizations and citizens, this paper constructs an information flow based model and synthesizes three specific sets of problems associated with crisis information flow. These include: vertical information gap between local and central governments, horizontal information problems between different agencies and regions, and information flow problems from the society to the government. All these problems combined to result in the information and communication failure of crisis decision-makers. To enhance crisis decision-making quality, decision makers must accurately and comprehensively collect and disseminate information, to precisely frame and define triggering event and, thereby structure initial harm mitigating responses and helps participants reduce confusion and disorientation.