中国三大语音通信市场的需求关系估计与需求效应比较分析

运用两阶段固定效应法，本文估计了中国三大语音通信市场的常弹性Marshall需求函数，结果显示：三大语音通信市场的需求都是无价格弹性的，固定本地电话对固定长途电话市场的需求具有互补效应，对移动电话市场的需求具有替代效应；固定长途电话对移动电话市场的需求具有互补效应。三大语音通信市场中，只有固定本地电话市场具有显著的需求收入效应，固定电话用户对固定本地电话市场的需求具有促进作用，对移动地电话市场的需求具有抑制作用，而移动电话用户对移动电话市场和固定长途电话市场的需求皆有促进作用。研究表明，随着时间的推移，人们的消费时尚正在向移动通信方式转变

Study on the Demand Relationships and Demand Effects of three Voice Communication Markets in China

The demand functions with constant elasticity of the fixed local,the fixed distant and the mobile communication market in China were estimated by two stage-fixed effect models.The results show that there exists price inelasticity of demand in three voice communication markets,the fixed local communication is complementary to the fixed distant communication market,but substitutive to the mobile communication market,while the fixed distant communication is complementary to the mobile communication market.Only the fixed local communication market has an income effect of demand among three voice communication markets,the demand of the fixed local communication market is promoted by fixed subscribers,while the demand of the mobile communication market is promoted by mobile subscribers.It is implied that consumption style is turning to mobile telephone from fixed telephone over time.