政治信任、社会网络与抗争倾向:基于53个国家和地区的实证比较

本文基于世界价值观调查数据（2010～2014年），构建了以抗争倾向为因变量的多层次混合效应逻辑斯蒂回归模型。对53个国家和地区的7万余份样本的分析表明，影响个体抗争倾向的因素同时存在于微观与宏观两个层次。在微观层次，相较于政治信任，个体的社会网络对抗争倾向的影响程度更高，说明相较于社会心理学视角下的集体行为理论，组织社会学视角下的资源动员理论具有更强的解释力。在宏观层次，相较于威权政体，民主政体下的个体更倾向于诉诸抗争行为。具体而言，威权政体下，强社会网络、低政治信任的个体抗争倾向最高；民主政体下，强社会网络、高政治信任的个体抗争倾向最高。这说明微观层次的因素对抗争倾向的影响受到政体类型的干预。

Political Trust,Social Network and Protest Potential: An Empirical Comparison of Fifty-Three Countries and Regions around the World

Based on the data from the World Values Survey(WVS) wave 6 (2010~2014),this article applies the multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model to explore the influence factors of protest potential. An analysis of more than 70 000 samples from 53 countries and regions around the world indicates that individual protest potential is determined by both micro-level and macro-level variables. On micro-level,personal social network and political trust have an effect on individual protest tendency. The quantitative analysis shows strong positive correlation between social network and protest potential,while the effect of political trust on protest potential is not definitive. The finding supports resource mobilization theory in organizational sociology that provides a better explanation of protest potential in comparison to collective behavior theory in social psychology. On macro-level,polity type exerts impact on individual protest potential. Citizens under democratic regimes are more prone to protest than those under authoritarian regimes. In authoritarian countries,the group with strong social networks and low political trust exhibits the highest probability of protesting,while in democracies,those with strong social networks and high political trust are most likely to protest. It is a clear indication that regime type inserts influence on micro-level factors affecting protest potential. In conclusion,in democracies,political trust promotes people's engagement in protests,and social protests demonstrate institutionalized characteristics of high density with low intensity. In authoritarian countries,people resort to protest mainly because of their distrust in the authority,therefore social protests have non-institutionalized characteristics of low density with high intensity.