房地产价格膨胀对金融震荡的警示

从房地产业的发展与银行信贷以及金融震荡三者的关系出发,研究中国房地产价格的膨胀与银行信贷支持的相互影响后发现,中国房地产业的发展和市场表现在其各个环节上都依赖于银行资金,且在各种因素的交织作用下,中国城市的房价持续上涨,有些大城市房价过高,金融泡沫在积聚。以上海为例,采用购房年成本与实际租金比指数分析上海房地产价格,可以得出上海房地产泡沫积聚过多,房价即将趋于平稳或下跌的结论。如果国内众多城市的房价在高位时急剧下跌将有可能引发全国范围的信贷紧缩和泡沫破灭,进而造成金融动荡,因此,涉及房地产业的宏观调控要谨慎慢行,循序渐进。

The Influence of Real Estate Price Expansion on Financial Situation

Analysis of the interactive relationships between rapid increase of real estate price,bank credit and financial reveal that the development and the performance of Chinese real estate market depend heavily on bank credits, and various factors exert influence on the price of the real estate, resulting in continuous increase of real estate prices especially in some big cities. It shows that financial bubbles are accumulating. Take Shanghai as an example. Analysis of the index of the annual cost of purchasing real estate to the real rent ratio suggests that the price seems to be unreasonably high, and it tends to stabilize or decrease soon. If the real estate prices suddenly go down from high point in big cities in China, it will lead to credit contract and bubble overturn, and nationwide financial fluctuation. The macro policy for supervision of real estate market should be a cautious and gradual one.