外商投资对发展中国家粮食安全的影响

基于依附理论和现代化理论的争论,从农业研发、生产、贸易以及金融发展四个角度解析农业 外商投资（ＦＤＩ）对发展中国家粮食安全的影响机理,进一步利用 １９９１—２０１７年 ６０个国家的面板数据, 通过构建动态面板模型实证检验二者关系的影响效应和作用机制。结果表明：农业外商投资（ＦＤＩ）会 对发展中国家粮食安全产生显著负向作用,这意味着国际垄断资本的“趁人之危”要大于“成人之美”; 异质性检验发现,对于经济发展水平较低、粮食短缺严重、地理位置沿海以及非 ＵＰＯＶ成员国的发展中 国家,农业 ＦＤＩ对粮食安全的“趁人之危”效应更大;农业 ＦＤＩ虽有利于提高发展中国家的粮食生产水 平,但会对农业自主研发能力和金融发展产生显著负向作用,并且会加重发展中国家的农产品进口贸易 依赖。

Impact of Agricultural FDI on Food Security in Developing Countries

Based on the debates over dependency theory and modernization theory, this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of agricultural FDI on food security in developing countries from the four perspectives: agricultural R&D capacity, production level, import trade dependence and agricultural financial development, and then uses panel data from 60 countries from 1991 to 2017 to empirically test the effect and mechanism of agricultural FDI on food security by constructing a dynamic panel model. Studies have shown that agricultural FDI will have a significant negative effect on food security in developing countries, which means that the intent of international monopoly capital to "taking advantage of another''s perilous state" has been greater than "helping others attain their aims". The heterogeneity test found that agricultural FDI has a greater negative effect on food security in developing countries with low levels of economic development, severe food shortages, geographic coastal locations, and non UPOV member countries. Agricultural FDI is conducive to improving the level of food production in developing countries, but it has a significant negative effect on agricultural independent research and development capabilities and financial development, and it also increases developing countries'' agricultural import trade dependence. The conclusions of this article provide a factual basis for the argument of the impact of agricultural FDI between the dependency theory and the modernization theory.