重庆市农民收入与工业化的区域差异及阈值效应研究

为了能更准确地把握区域工业化发展给农民收入带来的影响，综合运用计量经济学方法研究了重庆市农民收入与工业化之间的非线性关系。结果发现：重庆市农民收入水平存在连片集聚现象，区域间工业化发展极不平衡，且二者之间不存在长期均衡的协整关系，工业化水平的提高并不能带来农民收入的长期持续增长。工业化对农民收入的影响具有双面阈值效应，在不同工业化阶段，对农民收入的影响弹性先快速增加后逐渐减弱；在不同区域，工业化的影响呈现出倒“U”和“U”两种类型。

Regional Differences and Threshold Effects Between Income Growth of Rural Residents and Industrialization in Chongqing

This paper analyzed the nonlinear relationship between income growth of rural residents and industrialization in Chongqing by using the econometric methods in order to grasp the relationship be-tween the regional industrialization development and the farmers’income accurately. The results show that the characteristic of income of rural residents in Chongqing is contiguous cluster,and industriali-zation is inter-regional imbalances,especially that the long-run equilibrium relationship does not exist between them,which leads to the fact that improving the level of industrialization is not the only power for the sustainable growth in farmer’s revenue. In addition,the impact of industrialization on farmer’ s revenue has a double threshold effects,one is that the elasticity of farmers’revenue gradually being the condition from increased to weaken at the different stages of industrialization,and another is that the impact of industrialization shows inverted“U”type and“U”type in different regions.