中国城镇化：演进逻辑与政策启示

通过回顾新中国成立60多年来城镇化演进历程，归纳我国城镇化改革与发展的逻辑规律，在此基础上提出未来我国实施新型城镇化战略的政策启示。研究发现，我国城镇化进程经历了起步、失常、稳定和高速四个阶段，对城镇化趋势和波动分解发现我国城镇化进程主要表现为，中央强制性政策推动下的地方政府非公共利益无序驱动。未来，我国新型城镇化战略应该坚持：一是中央政策要协调好发展需求“拉力”和政策制度“推力”的关系，防止新型城镇化脱离客观规律；二是要从积极和消极两个方面扭转地方政府在城镇化推进过程中的非社会利益行为；三是地方政府推进新型城镇化，要从拆迁等强制性推动向诱导性推进转型，诱导性推进要体现公共服务先行；四是要统筹城乡发展并缩小城乡差距，实现城镇化进程的自动均衡。

China’s Urbanization:the Law of Evolution and the Suggestion of Policy

This paper starts with going back the history of China’s urbanization from 1949. Via the history,we discover the evaluating rule of the urbanization reform,and then put forward the policy suggestion for the further development of the new urbanization. The study shows that,in the past over sixty years,China’s urbanization can be divided into four phases, such as initial development,abnormal development,stable development and high-speed development. Furthermore,the to?tal trend of urbanization is decomposed into the long-term trend and the short-term fluctuation by HP method. From the re?sult,it shows that the progress of China’s urbanization mostly has been driven by the compulsory policy from the central government and non-public interests of local authority. It is the abnormal development. Thus,in the future,to realize the new urbanization,we must adhere to the following suggestions:Firstly,the central government should balance the relation?ship of“pulling power”from the developing requirement and“pushing power”from the policy and institution,which can keep the urbanization going the objective law;Secondly,from the both positive and negative way,the local authority should change its goal of the non-public interests during the urbanization progress;Thirdly,in the process of urbanization,the lo?cal authority should get rid off the existed compulsory policy and transform into the induced policy which would be realized by supplying the public services;Finally,the state should overall urban-rural development and narrow the gap between ru?ral and urban,which will develop the optimal urbanization in automatic way.