京津冀城市群人口空间结构演变及优化路径研究

人口的流动和分布直接影响着城市群城镇体系的质量，进而影响着城市群经济社会的可持续协调发展。文章从人口分布的空间差异、动态变化以及空间格局三个层面探讨了京津冀城市群人口分布演化特征；基于中心地理论和新经济地理理论，从行政、经济、交通三个角度构建了城市人口规模分布演化影响因素分析框架，利用Zipf法则对2003～2013年京津冀城市群人口演化规律进行研究。结果表明，城市行政级别、人力资源水平、经济结构、交通建设等因素对京津冀城市群人口规模分布影响显著。基于此，提出应当通过公共服务均等化、城市技能互补、产业布局优化、交通网络建设完善等对策引导京津冀地区人口合理布局的建议，助推京津冀协同发展重大战略的实施。

Population Spatial Structure Evolution Pattern and Optimization Path in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

The flow and distribution of population affect directly the quality of the urban system,which affects the sustain?able collaborative development of urban agglomeration economy and society. Firstly,the paper discusses the characteristic of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration population distribution and evolution from three aspects of spatial differ?ence,dynamic change and spatial pattern. Secondly,the paper constructs the analytical framework of evolution influence factors of urban population size distribution from the viewpoints of administration,economy and traffic. Thirdly,the paper uses Zipf’law to study the evolution law of 2003~2013 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration population. Lastly, the result shows that the factors of urban administrative level,level of human resources,economic structure and traffic con?struction have a great effect on population size distribution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Basing on the re?sult,the paper puts forward the countermeasures of public service equalization,urban skill complementary,industrial lay?out optimization and traffic network construction to guide reasonable distribution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region popu?lation.