气候变化背景下荒漠草原牧民退牧意愿及其影响因素分析--以张掖市平山湖乡为例

近年来，气候变化对自然生态环境造成了极大破坏，特别是对原本生态环境脆弱，自然灾害频发的荒漠草原更是雪上加霜，严重影响了牧民的生产生活。只有鼓励更多牧民参与退牧还草项目，才能促使当地经济快速发展。基于此，本文利用甘肃省张掖市平山湖乡全乡牧民的调查数据，首先采用Logistic回归模型分析牧民退牧意愿的影响因素，然后运用解释结构模型分析各影响因素之间的关系。研究表明：牧民受教育程度、家庭拥有的饲草地面积、牧民对气候变化的认知、牧民对草原荒漠化的认知、牧民对退牧补贴政策的认知，对牧民退牧意愿呈现出正向影响，而家庭拥有的羊只数量对牧民退牧意愿呈现出负向影响，牧民年龄和外出务工率对牧民退牧意愿影响不显著。其中，文化程度、羊只数量、饲草地面积是深层原因；对退牧补贴政策的认知和对草原荒漠化的认知是间接原因；对气候变化的认知是直接原因。

The Will of Herdsmen at Desert Grassland Returning Grazing under the Background of Climate Change and the Analysis on Influence Factor:Take Pingshanhu Town in Zhangye City for Example

In recent years,the climate change has already greatly destroyed the natural ecological environment,especially having greatly negative impact on the desert grassland where the ecological environment is fragile and the natural disasters occur frequently,with the production and life of the herdsmen badly affected. The local economy’s rapid development shall be promoted only when more herdsmen are encouraged to participate in the program of returning grazing land to grassland. Based on that,this paper took advantage of the research data on herdsmen in Pingshanhu Town,Zhangye City,Gansu Prov?ince,and used the logistic regression model of binomial distribution to empirically analyze the factors influencing herds?men’will of returning grazing. And the relationship between the various influencing factors is analyzed by the use of the in?terpretative structural modeling method. The results show that the following factors have positive correlation with herdsmen ’ will of returning grazing:the educational level of a herdsman,the area of grassland owned by the herdsmen,herdsmen’un?derstanding of desertification in grassland,and herdsmen’understanding of subsidy policy for returning glazing. However, the number of sheep owned by a family has negative influence upon herdsmen’will of returning grazing. The age of herds?men and rate of herdsmen going out for non-farming job have not visible influence upon the will of herdsmen returning graz?ing. In addition,the educational level,the area of the forage grassland and the number of the sheep is the deep reason. The indirect reason is the cognition towards the desertification of the grassland and the cognition towards the subsidy policy of re?trieving grassland from grazing. The direct reason is the cognition towards the climatic change.