计划生育政策对社会保险支出的影响--基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

本文研究了实施计划生育政策与社会保险支出水平之间的关系。利用30个省市2005—2013年的面板数据，运用广义线性模型修正异方差与自相关后，发现：在全国层面，计划生育政策无论与总社会保险支出，还是与分类的养老保险支出、医疗保险支出、工伤保险支出、生育保险支出之间，都存在显著的负向关系。从分省数据看，实施计划生育政策越严格的地区，养老保险支出与医疗保险支出水平就越低。

The Effect of One-Child Policy on Social Insurance Expenditure:Empirical Study on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This paper studies the relationship between the implementation of the One-Child Policy and social insurance expen-diture. Based on 30 provincial panel data of 2005—2013, using generalized linear model to deal with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation,we found:At the national level, regardless of the total social security expenditure, or detailed pension expen-ditures, medical insurance expenditures, injury insurance or maternity insurance expenses,there is a significant negative cor-relation between social insurance expenditure and One-Child Policy. The more strict the One-Child Policy ,the lower the so-cial insurance expenditure.