| 农村人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响研究--以西北五省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐媛媛,孙浩,燕彬.农村人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响研究--以西北五省为例[J].西北人口,2016(5):112-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐媛媛 孙浩 燕彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学经济学院,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学青年基金“人口转变条件下的农业发展机制及相关对策研究--以西部地区为例”((13YJC790111)。) |
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| 摘 要： | 计划生育政策实施以来，我国人口年龄结构发生了剧烈变动，农村居民消费严重不足，扩大内需成为新常态下我国经济发展的战略方向。基于2001～2013年省际面板数据，运用一步系统广义矩估计法，实证研究了西北五省农村地区人口年龄结构变动对农村居民消费的影响，结果显示：西北五省农村少儿抚养比和农村老年抚养比均与居民消费呈同向变动关系，有效地支持了生命周期假说；城镇化水平与农村居民消费则呈负向关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 居民消费 农村人口结构 系统广义矩估计 城镇化率 |
The Empirical Study of Rural Demographic Structure Change on Household Consumption:Base on Northwestern Five Provinces |
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| Abstract: | Since the implementation of family planning,demographic structure changed dramatically in China. Expanding domestic demand becomes the strategic direction of economic development in the new normal in China. Using the provincial panel data in the year of 2001~2013,combining one-step system GMM,empirical study of the effects of rural demographic structure on household consumption in northwest five provinces showed that both rural children dependency ratio and rural old dependency ratio have a significant positive effect on household consumption. The result support life-cycle hypothesis. In addition,the level of urbanization has a negative correlation with rural household consumption. |
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| Keywords: | household consumption rrural demographic structure system GMM urbanization rate |
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