Building scenarios for Hong Kong using EMS

Managers facing substantial uncertainties find it helpful to construct scenarios describing alternative futures. The scenarios reveal a variety of possible futures that managers might face, and the scenario construction process can offer insights into the source of future uncertainties. As part of the scenario-building process it is useful to talk with people who are knowledgeable about the events depicted in the scenarios. But in some political environments, these people may be reluctant to talk openly about their concerns. This article describes an approach based on electronic meeting systems in which participants can discuss sensitive events anonymously through a network of personal computers. The article presents scenarios for the business future of Hong Kong following its reunification with the People's Republic of China.