二元经济结构影响农民收入增长的理论与实证分析

分析了二元经济结构制约农民经营性收入、工资性收入、转移性收入和财产性收入增长的机制。借助2003年全国31个省区截面数据从静态角度实证分析二元经济结构对农民收入增长的影响,显示二元系数与城乡收入差距存在明显的正相关关系。对1978-2007年二元系数和城乡收入差距指数进行格兰杰因果检验,发现二元经济结构是引起城乡收入差距的Granger原因。进一步利用脉冲响应函数分析,发现二元经济结构的持续增长将会扩大城乡收入差距,并且随着时间的推移,这种刺激作用会增强。因此,要从根本上解决农民收入相对低下的问题,关键在于及早实现二元经济结构转换。

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Dual Economic Structure on the Rural Residents' Income Increase

This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the dual economic structure to the increase of rural residents’income fro-m household operations,income from wages and salaries,and income from transfers and properties.Then it uses the cross-sectional data of 31provinces and regions in 2003to analyze the impact on the rural residents’income increase of urban-rural dual economic structure.The result indicates that the dual urban-rural income gap and dual coefficients have a significant positive correlation.The Granger causality test on Binary coefficients and urban-rural income gap of the 1978-2007 years indices that the dual structure could Granger cause the urban-rural income gap.Make further use of impulse response function analysis,found that the continued growth of dual structure will contribute to urban-rural income gap,and as time goes by,this stimulating effect could be enhanced.Therefore,the key to improve rural residents’income radically is to transform the dual economic structure as soon as possible.