开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。

Effect of OFDI on industrial structure upgrading and transmission path in open economy

Outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)has become the main way for China to integrate into the world economy under the open economy, which plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the economic transformation. Based on the interaction mechanism between OFDI and industrial structure upgrading and transmission path, the present situation is analyzed about the OFDI and industrial structure in Anhui Province. The empirical analysis from perspective of the overall level of industrial structure shows that the effect of industrial structure upgrading brought by OFDI in Anhui Province is not significant in the short term. The VAR model is constructed from perspective of the specific transmission path, and empirical analysis is carried out by using principal component analysis and impulse response. It is pointed out that OFDI in Anhui Province can promote the upgrading of its industrial structure through trade, intra-provincial investment, employment and technological path. Therefore, the scale of OFDI investment should be expanded, and the quality and efficiency of OFDI should be improved; the competitiveness of enterprises and technological innovation capabilities should be enhanced, and the structure of OFDI should be optimized; the provincial government should play the role of macro-control and policy guidance, beef up the support for enterprises.