中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资潜力与方向研究

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,对外投资一直是建设中的重点内容。选取2007—2016年10年间57个“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据计算中国对沿线国家OFDI的绩效和潜力。通过计算发现,在倡议提出后,大部分国家OFDI的绩效都在增加,但投资潜力较大的国家只占少数,且欧洲地区国家OFDI的潜力普遍低于亚洲国家。运用东道国GDP、国家风险指数、劳动力占比、技术禀赋四个因素回归分析投资区位的选择,指出中国对不同绩效和引力的国家投资动机不尽相同,并提出相关建议。

Research on Chinese investment potential and direction toward countries along Belt and Road

Since the Belt and Road initiative was put forward, the foreign investment has always been a key content in its construction. The panel data of 57 countries along the Belt and Road in the past 10 years from 2007 to 2016 are used to calculate the OFDI performance and potential of China. It is found through calculations that the performance of OFDI is increasing in most countries after the initiative was put forward, but only a small number of countries with large investment potential, and the potential of OFDI in European countries is generally lower than that in Asian countries. Using the four factors of the GDPs of the host countries, national risk index, labor force ratio and technological endowment, the choice of investment location is analyzed, and China has different investment motives for different countries with different performance and attraction. The relevant suggestions are put forward.