养老保险政策的微观模拟

养老保险制度改革的方案已成为社会和学术界关注的热点, 为此, 我们提供了一个动态微观模拟模型, 用于分析我国的养老保险政策。模型通过一系列生命事件和政策实施事件更新微观个体状态, 宏观经济总量是微观个体状态的自然累积。应用长春市的微观数据, 我们进行了养老保险政策的模拟实验。实验结果表明: 实施现行的养老保险政策, 将导致养老金收支出现严重赤字;适当地延长法定退休年龄或提高养老金筹集比率, 能够使养老金收支趋于平衡, 且财政补贴趋于平滑。

Microsimulation of Pension Insurance Policies

This paper provides a dynamic microsimulation model to analyze pension insurance policies in China. The states of the individuals are updated by many life events and policy events, which are aggregated to macroeconomic variables. We do some simulation experiments of pension insurance policies by Changchun micro-data. The results show: revenue and expenditure will be deficit if the government carry out existed pension policy; and revenue and expenditure will be balanced and fiscal subsidy will be smooth if the retirement ages are raised or the levy ratio are increased.