基于供需理论的房地产金融风险预警及防范对策——以重庆市为例

随着房地产市场和资本市场的快速发展，房地产金融迅速崛起。部分居民在满足住房刚需后，转向对房产的投资，刺激了房地产市场，使房地产市场供求关系失衡，房地产金融风险也随之增长。基于供需理论视角构建房地产金融风险预警指标体系，并运用功效系数法，以重庆市为例测算2000—2020年的综合预警值，提供房地产金融风险的防范对策。结果表明，所构建的预警指标具有较好的预警能力，重庆市2013年的房地产金融风险处于警戒值以下，但近三年房地产金融风险有明显增大倾向，存在潜在风险的可能，需引起必要的重视。防范房地产金融风险、维护金融稳定，需要多方主体的共同努力：政府应加强房地产业监管、引导行业有效投资；房企要去杠杆降负债、探索投资发展新模式；居民家庭需制定长期购房规划、强化多元投资意识；金融机构需有序开展房地产开发贷款项目、加强房企资信评估与管理。

Early Warning of Real Estate Financial Risks and Countermeasures for Prevention Based on Supply and Demand Theory: a Case Study of Chongqing Municipality

With the rapid development of real estate market and capital market, real estate finance is also developing rapidly. Some residents turn to real estate investment after meeting their immediate housing needs, which stimulates the real estate market and makes the supply and demand of real estate unbalanced, and real estate financial risks also increase. This paper intends to build a real estate financial risk early-warning index system based on the theory of supply and demand and uses the efficiency coefficient method to calculate the comprehensive early-warning value from 2000 to 2020 by taking Chongqing as an example. The results show that the constructed early-warning index has a good early-warning ability, and the real estate financial risk in Chongqing is below the warning value in 2013. In recent three years, the real estate financial risk in Chongqing tends to increase significantly, and there are certain potential risks, which should be paid attention to. To prevent real estate financial risks and maintain financial stability, the joint efforts of many parties are needed: the government should strengthen the supervision of the real estate industry and guide effective investment in the industry; real estate enterprises should deleverage and reduce liabilities and explore new modes of investment development; households should make long-term housing purchase plans and strengthen the awareness of diversified investment; financial institutions should orderly carry out real estate development loan projects and strengthen the credit assessment and management of real estate enterprises.