The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso

Using event history analyses, we investigate the impact of rainfall conditions — a crucial environmental factor in the livelihood of Sahelian households— on the risk of the first village departure in Burkina Faso. The distinction of migrations by destination and duration proves critical in studying this relationship. Findings suggest that people from the drier regions are more likely than those from wetter areas to engage in both temporary and permanent migrations to other rural areas. Also, short-term rainfall deficits tend to increase the risk of long-term migration to rural areas and decrease the risk of short-term moves to distant destinations.