基于GMDH-Bayesian-SEM的非常规油气开发技术效应研究——以致密气生产数据为例

地质因素与技术因素是影响非常规油气开发产能水平的主要类因素群，技术作用被认为是制约非常规油气开发质量的主导因素。以S地区致密气生产数据为研究样本，构建产能水平影响因素的结构方程模型（Structural Equation Model），通过数据分组处理（GMDH）方法提取关键指标构建结构方程模型，并依据贝叶斯估计（Bayesian Estimation）探究地质参数与技术参数对非常规油气产能评价指标的影响效应，从定量角度对比分析技术作用的实际影响效果及其影响程度。研究表明:不同技术规模下，观测指标对地质作用与技术作用的影响效应不同；地质因素是影响产能水平的主导因素，明显超出技术因素的影响程度，从而对工程施工中强调技术因素的管理方式提出挑战。因此，加强非常规油气开发领域的地质研究是提升技术本土适应性水平的关键。

Using GMDH-Bayesian-SEM Method to Evaluate Technology Effect of Unconventional Oil and Gas-Evidence from Tigh Gas Production Data

Geological and technological factors are two major factor-groups to affect the quality of unconventional oil and gas development. Meanwhile,technological factor is considered to be a dominant factor restricing unconventional resource exploitation. Taking tight gas production data of S-block as research sample set,building structural equation model(SEM)of capacity level with self-orgnization learning technique(GMDH)of influencing factor to evaluating effects of geological parameters and technology parameters on capacity evaluation-index by Bayesian estimation with a perspective of quantitative analysis. The results show that the impact of observation index to geological process and technological process plays a different role under a defferetnt development scale. Geological effect is considered to be dominant factor affecting production levels comparaed with technological effect. Exploitation quality of unconventional resource is infuecnced more by geological process with a large degree. Therefore,emphasis of technicality of unconventional resource development face challengs when considering managnment style in this field. To strengthen geological research of unconventional oil and gas development is the key to enhance the level of technology local adaptation.