空间集聚、技术创新与中国省域经济增长——基于面板数据FE-Ⅳ模型的实证研究

通过对技术创新作用的比较静态分析，阐释了集聚影响增长的理论机制，构建了空间经济增长的群峰型周期结构框架，从理论上统一了"倒U形""U形"曲线关系等不一致的研究结论。随后，在利用空间赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数（HHI）和空间集中度指数（CR2）定量测度中国25省1990-2013年省域经济空间集聚程度的基础上，借助能同时处理个体效应和内生性问题的面板固定效应工具变量模型，对提出的理论假说进行了实证分析和稳健性检验。结果表明:在其他因素不变时，空间集聚对省域经济增长的影响呈"倒U形"曲线关系；而当创新水平提高和其他控制因素改善时，这一"倒U形"曲线则会向右上位移，不断拓展区域经济增长的潜在上限，形成一种周期性群峰结构；而实际的经济集聚程度则影响区域增长在上限范围内的具体位置，且达致最高增长水平的最优经济集聚程度与创新水平呈正比，过高或过低的集聚程度都不利于增长。

Spatial Agglomeration,Technological Innovation and China's Provincial Economic Growth-Empirical Research based on Panel Data FE-IV Model

A comparative static analysis of technological innovation was done in this paper and a peaks-shaped structural model between agglomeration and growth was established, which unified conflicting conclusions such as" inverted U-shaped" curve,"U-shaped" curve hypothesis and so on. Then, on the basis of measuring the spatial agglomeration degree of China's 25 provinces from 1990 to 2013 using spatial HHI and CR2 index, the theoretical propositions put forward in the paper were tested empirically using panel IV model capable of solving the problems of individual fixed effect and? endogenous variable simultaneously. The results show that when other factors remain constant,"inverted U-shaped" curve holds between agglomeration and growth; when innovation and other related factors improve, the inverted "U-shaped" curve will move to the upper right, forming a cyclical peaks-shaped structure, expanding the upper limit of regional growth level; while the agglomeration degree affects the growth level within the limit, the optimal agglomeration degree that achieves the highest level of economic growth is positively related to innovation level, and going beyond the limit is as bad as falling short.