企业职工基本养老保险、养老金替代率和人口增长率

本文在一般均衡框架内、用OLG模型分析企业职工基本养老保险制度，考察个人账户养老金替代率、社会统筹养老金替代率和人口增长率对资本劳动比、社会统筹养老金、个人账户养老金、工作期消费、退休期消费和效用的影响，求解最优的社会统筹养老金替代率。该最优替代率取决于人口增长率、个人折现率、社会折现率和资本的收入份额。模拟显示：提高个人账户养老金替代率、降低社会统筹养老金替代率和严格执行计划生育政策利多于弊；最优的社会统筹养老金替代率应随人口增长率下降而适当调低。

The Public Pension for Enterprise Employees, Benefit Replacement Rate and Population Growth Rate

Employing an OLG model within general equilibrium framework, this paper analyzes China’s public pension system for enterprise employees. It examines the effects of the individual account benefit replacement rate，social pool benefit replacement rate and population growth rate on the capital-labor ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, consumption and utility, and seeks the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate. This optimal replacement rate depends on the population growth rate, individual discount rate, social discount rate and capital share of income. The simulations show that it will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacement rate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement family planning policy; the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate should be reduced rationally along with the fall in the population growth rate.