中国-东盟自由贸易区农产品贸易格局分析

考察2004～2013年间，中国－东盟农产品贸易的总量特征、市场结构及进出口集中度，并利用净出口显示性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数测度了双边农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性。研究结果表明：（1）2004年以来中国与东盟农产品贸易额快速增长，但双边农产品贸易逆差也逐渐扩大。（2）中国在东盟的农产品出口目的地较分散而进口来源地则集中于马来西亚、印尼和泰国；中国出口的农产品多是劳动密集型产品，而进口的主要为土地密集型农产品；出口结构相对多元化。（3）中国农产品总体上不具有比较优势，而越南、泰国、印尼等国的农产品国际竞争力则较为显著。（4）中国对东盟7国的农产品进口互补性指数要略高于出口互补性指数，这也印证了东盟是中国重要的农产品进口来源地。

A Study on Agricultural Trade Pattern of China ASEAN Free Trade Area

The paper examines the data of gross characteristic, market structure, import and export concentration between China and ASEAN from 2004 to 2013. And it measures the competitive and complementary of bilateral trade in agricultural products, using net export revealed comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index. The results prove that: (1) Since 2004, trade volume between China and ASEAN Agricultural has grown rapidly, but the bilateral agricultural trade deficit has gradually expanded. (2) China's export destinations of agricultural products are dispersed in the ASEAN, and importers are concentrated in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Chinese agricultural exports are mostly labor-intensive products, while imports are mainly land-intensive agricultural products. And China's export structure is relatively diversified. (3) Chinese agricultural products in general do not have a comparative advantage, and the international competitiveness of agricultural products in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries are more significant. (4) The agricultural products import complementarity index of China via seven ASEAN countries is slightly higher than export complementarity index, which also confirms that ASEAN is an important source of agricultural products import for China.