粮食生产的能源投入及技术变动趋势

为探究中国粮食生产的能源投入及技术变动趋势，构建了粮食生产超越对数生产函数模型，基于全国30个省份面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示，化肥、农药、农用柴油等能源投入对粮食生产的影响较大，化肥、农药的边际作用呈递减趋势，劳动力、农用柴油、机械动力的边际作用呈递增趋势，各能源要素与劳动力的替代关系明显。为此，在中国未来的粮食生产中，要提高化肥、农药、农用柴油等能源要素的利用效率，通过技术创新提升农业机械动力、劳动力的生产贡献程度，推动粮食生产向精细化和能源节约方向转变。

Energy Input and Technological Trends of Chinese Grain Production

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces, we constructed a Trans-log Production Function model of grain production, and analyzed the Energy input and the technological trends of Chinese grain production. The results show that: the impact of fertilizers, pesticides, diesel oil and other energy factors have larger influence on grain production, the marginal contribution of chemical fertilizers, pesticides is decreasing, and the marginal contribution of labor factors, agricultural diesel, agricultural machinery is increasing. The substitution elasticity between energy and labor factors is large. Improving the efficiency of fertilizers, pesticides, diesel oil and other energy input, promoting the energy factor alternation from mechanical power and labor by technological innovation and expenditure are important measures to change the traditional grain production mode to organic, refined and energy saving production model.