基于线性模型的生猪生产数据调整及其波动特征研究

客观准确的数据是揭示生猪生产波动规律的首要条件。第二次全国农业普查后,官方对部分年份的生猪生产数据进行了调整,分析发现:所调整数据的虚报率符合线性变化规律,故在此基础上构建线性修正模型,对1985—1995年生猪生产数据进行调整,并利用调整后的数据对中国生猪生产波动特征进行分析,得出三点结论:第一,20世纪80年代前后相比较,生猪生产平均波动周期长度有所增加;第二,生猪生产的收缩期长度和收缩强度均大于扩张期的相应特征,即中国生猪生产波动的下滑特征更为明显;第三,生猪生产波动幅度呈现"U"型变化趋势,且现阶段正处于波动幅度不断加剧的过程。因此,有必要继续加强对生猪生产波动规律的探寻和监测,为缓解中国生猪生产波动提供可靠依据。

Data Adjustment and Fluctuation Characteristics of Hog Production Based on Linear Model

Accurate data is the basement on revealing the law of hog production fluctuation.Analyzed the adjustment result of the hog production after second national agricultural census,found that the inflated figure consistent with the linear variation,and linear correction model was constructed,and adjusted the hog production from 1985 to 1995.Then analyzed the fluctuation characteristics by the adjusted data,and the conclusions as follows,(1) the average cycle length after 1980s is longer than before.(2) The characteristic of hog production contraction is stronger than the expansion.(3) The characteristics fluctuation range of Slaughtered Fattened Hogs presented U-shaped trend,and the fluctuation range is on the process of growing recently.We should continue to explore the variation law of hog production,and provide conclusions to cease the fluctuation.