中国经济总量及要素增长的基本趋势分析

研究的目的在于回答中国经济增长及生产要素的趋势到底是什么样的？其结论对中国经济的长期预测具有重要意义。虽然所研究的与现有的收敛性分析及影响因素分析不同，但从长期看，中国经济增长及生产要素有着自身的时间特性，各种影响因素是经济增长短期波动的原因。通过分析发现：中国经济（GDP）增长、资本存量服从指数时间模型，而劳动力增长则服从增长曲线时间模型。据此，并对中国GDP、资本存量及劳动力的增长速度进行了区间估计。

The Basic Trend Analysis on the Economic Growth of China

This paper attempt to get the answer of the trends of China's economy growth and production factors,and the conclusions are important for the long term forecasts of China's economy growth.Our study is different from the presently convergence study and influential factor analysis.We think Chinese economy growth and its production factors,in the long run,have time characteristic.The various influences are the causes of the shot run fluctuation of the economy.This paper sets up the time growth models of GDP,capital stock and labor force based on the analyses of the characteristic of economic growth in China.Getting along with this,the intervals of the growth rate of GDP,capital stock and labor force are estimated.