| 基于MixedLogit模型的道路交通统计生命价值评价研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘文歌,赵胜川.基于MixedLogit模型的道路交通统计生命价值评价研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2013,28(2):109-112. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘文歌 赵胜川 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024;大连交通大学管理学院,辽宁大连116028
2. 大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连,116024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目《考虑诱增交通量的交通需求预测模型的基础研究》 |
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| 摘 要： | 道路交通统计生命价值是道路交通安全项目经济评价的重要指标。运用意愿选择法和正交试验法设计了出行路径选择的调查问卷。假定时间、死亡风险为常数，费用服从对数正态分布，建立了基于Mixed Logit模型的统计生命价值评价模型。以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，利用Monte Carlo方法并借助GAUSS软件对模型进行了150次仿真实验。研究表明：模型各参数的估计值具有较强集中性，t检验值具有较强显著性，模型优度比较高。统计生命价值服从参数为0．922和0．814的对数正态分布，其数学期望是35万元，可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输安全工程 统计生命价值 Mixed Logit模型 Monte Carlo仿真 |
The Evaluation Study on the Value of a Statistical Life in Road Traffic Based on Mixed Logit Model |
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| LIU Wen-ge
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ZHAO Sheng-chuan.The Evaluation Study on the Value of a Statistical Life in Road Traffic Based on Mixed Logit Model[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2013,28(2):109-112. |
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| Authors: | LIU Wen-ge ZHAO Sheng-chuan |
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| Institution: | 1(1.School of Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China; 2.School of Management,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China) |
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| Abstract: | The value of a statistical life （VOSL） in road traffic is an important index for economic evaluation on road safety programs. Firstly, the route-choice questionnaire is designed combined with the stated choice method （SCM） and the orthogonal experiment method. Then the VOSL model is established based on mixed logit model by supposing parameters of time and fatal risk are fixed and fee parameter has a lognormal distribution. Finally, 150 simulations are executed by Monte Carlo and Gauss based on the SCM data from drivers in Dalian. The research result indicates： parameters estimates are centralized and t-values are significant with high likelihood ratios. VOSL has a lognormal distribution whose parameters are 0. 922 and 0. 814, and its mathematical expectation is 350000RMB. It can be used as a reference to appraise road safety programs. |
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| Keywords: | traffic safety engineering the value of a statistical life Mixed Logit model MonteCarlo simulation |
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