野生动物资源最优管理的动态经济模型及实证研究

研究自然条件、社会发展和经济政策等多方面对野生动物资源管理的约束与系统分析野生动物资源管理的动态经济均衡，对于野生动物保护管理具有十分重要的理论支持和实践指导。在自然条件方面，以开放生物种群资源生长的Logistic增长模型作为约束条件；在社会发展方面，考虑产业资本投入的影响；在经济政策方面，以税收或补贴为约束条件，运用成本收益分析建立野生动物资源持续利用的动态经济均衡模型，并利用常微分方程、最大值原理等数学方法求解得到最优资源存量水平和最优收获量。同时以麝为例进行应用性实证分析，得到麝类资源的最优种群水平为143．01万只，最优持续收获量为66．24万只。当贴现率从0．01到0．1之间变化时，麝类资源最优种群水平将在149．93到134．36万只之间，而最优持续产量将维持在66．44到65．59万只之间。

The Dynamic Economic Equilibrium Model and Applied Study on the Optimal Management of Wild Animal Resources

In this paper, we analyzed the wild animal resources dynamic economic equilibrium with the many restrictions about the nature conditions, society development and economics policy. It is important in the theory and practice on the wild animal management. We used the cost--benefit analysis method to create the wild animal resources sustainable utilization dynamic economic equilibrium model with the many restriction conditions about the Logistic increase function in the nature conditions, industry capital invest in the society development, taxation, and economic composition in the economic policy. Then the mathematic method about normal differential equation and maximum theory was used to obtain the optimal animal population quantity and the optimal harvest quantity. After, the musk deer was selected as the case object of applied research, and used the dynamic economic equilibrium theoretical model and the data from musk deer investigation to carry the applied analysis to obtain the optimal harvest quantity dynamic function about musk deer resources in China. Then the function was used to obtain the optimal population quantity about musk deer should be 1. 4301 millions, and the optimal harvest quantity should be 662. 4 thousands. Lastly, it analyzed the affect of the society discount rate changes. The optimal population quantity keep between 1. 4993 millions and 1. 3436 millions, and the optimal sustainable harvest quantity keep between 664. 4 thousands and 655. 9 thousands when the society discount rate change from 0. 01 toO. 10.