考虑风险因素的客户评价与选择研究

应用效用理论考虑客户终生价值的不确定性,根据客户的期望效用对客户进行评价,权衡价值与风险来优化选择客户组合.通过蒙特卡罗仿真方法得到客户终生价值分布样本,并以此计算期望效用;通过实际案例,揭示期望价值相近的客户可能表现出风险的巨大差异.对比期望价值和期望效用方法所得到的前30名客户组合,发现采用风险规避型期望效用方法得到的客户资产期望价值虽然有所减少,但风险大大降低.通过这种方法,管理者能体现自己对客户终生价值分布风险的偏好,根据当前的市场战略选择重点客户进行投资.

A Study on Customer Evaluation and Selection Considering Risk Factors

Utility theory is used for customer scoring by taking into account the risk due to the intrinsic stochastic nature of the future predictions.The customer portfolio is optimized by selecting customer whose inclusion leads to an optimal value-risk tradeoff.The lifetime value distributions of customers are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation,which are used to calculate the expected utility.Using data from a case study,the result shows that a risk-averse criterion leads to portfolios with a lower future expe...