突发事件后生产运作系统的能力应急管理模型研究

分析了因突发事件而能力受损生产运作系统在应急期间应急管理模式,围绕系统内部能力恢复和外部能力采购,综合考虑高额社会惩罚成本,以应急期间的运作总成本（也即总损失）最小为目标构建了多阶段的能力应急模型。通过随机动态规划算法对模型进行数值仿真后得到4个重要的管理学结论,对生产型运作系统应急预案的制定、能力协作伙伴的选择、能力恢复投资以及应急时间跨度的决策均具有重要的指导意义。

Capacity Management Model of Production Operation System after the Disruption

The capacity management mode of production operation systems during the disruption is analyzed.Multiple-period model is created with the capacity recovery and procurement with the consideration of high social penalty cost to minimize the total disruption management cost.4 important managerial insights are obtained through numerical simulation by stochastic dynamic programming,which are useful for the guidance in contingency planning,the choice of capacity collaborating supplier,investment in capacity recovery department and the choosing in contingency periods during the disruption.