农业面源污染与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于1995—2011年福建省数据分析

运用计量经济模型中的协整检验、脉冲响应、方差分解工具,对福建省1995—2011年的农业面源污染与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。研究发现:农业面源污染中氮的产污量与人均GDP增长呈现"倒U型"的曲线关系;经济增长与农业面源污染中氮的产污量存在长期稳定的协整关系,即经济增长与农业面源污染存在长期的矛盾;人均实际GDP对农业面源污染的冲击是负向的,表明农业环境污染的加重制约了经济的可持续发展;方差分解显示人均GDP增长是解释农业面源污染方差变化的重要变量,而农业面源污染对经济增长方差变化的贡献度较小。最后在此基础上,提出有益于经济增长与农业环境保护协调发展的政策建议。

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution And Economic Growth An Empirical Analysis according to Fujian Province

This article uses the tools that co-integration test ,impulse response and variance decomposition are used in the econometric model tool, to empirical study the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and economic growth in Fujian Province during 1995-2011.The study shows that nitrogen pol- lution of agricultural non-point source pollution and GDP per capita growth presents＂ curve inverted U type＂ ; There is a long-run cointegration relationship in the economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollu- tion,namely economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution have long-term contradiction; The impact real GDP per capita to the impulsion of agricultural non-point source pollution is negative, indicating that the agricultural environment pollution resticts sustainable development of economy;The variance decompo- sition shows the the per capita GDP is an important variable to the variance of agricultural non-point source pollution,but agricultural non-point source pollution has a small effect on the variance of per capita GDP.Fi- nally, we can put forward the positive coordinated policy about economic growth and agricultural environmental protection on the basis of the above analysis.