多代新技术的最优投资策略和扩散研究——一种实物期权方法

本文通过将新技术的出现描述为泊松过程,在未来多代新技术和投资成本随新技术出现不断下降的情形下,通过新技术采纳的累积概率分布函数,研究企业最优的技术投资策略以及新技术的扩散过程。在分析未来两代新技术的情形时,对比净现值(NPV)法则下得到的企业最优投资策略,由于NPV法忽视了企业推迟投资的期权价值,企业在NPV方法下只能得到次优的决策。数字释例显示出企业的技术采纳行为如何受到创新速度、折现率、投资成本及其下降幅度的影响。进一步在无穷代新技术的情形下,得到了企业最迟投资时间的计算方法。本文模型可以用来预测现实中企业的投资策略,并为实证分析新技术的采纳和扩散过程提供了理论支持。

A Study on Firms Optimal Investment Strategies and Diffusion of New Technology under Multiple Generations of Future Innovations:A Real Option Approach

This paper characterizes the arrival of technology innovations as a Poisson jump process.Under multiple future innovations and decreasing investment cost,firms' optimal investment strategies and diffusion of new technologies are studied by the cumulative probability distribution function of technologies adoption.When analyzing two future technologies' circumstances and contrasting to the optimal investment strategies derived under the NPV rule,because the NPV approach ignores the real option value of firms' postponing investment,it is shown that the firms will just acquire sub-optimal decisions by the NPV approach.Numerical examples illustrate how firms' technology adoption behavior is affected by changes in the values of the speed of technology progress,the discount rate,the investment and the extent of investment decrease.Furthermore,this paper gives the calculating method of the latest time of firms' investment under infinite future technologies' circumstances.The model can be used to predict actual firms policies and provide powerful academic support for empirical analyzing of the firms' adoption behavior and the diffusion of new technologies.