On the dynamics of the age structure,dependency, and consumption |
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Authors: | Heinrich?Hock Email author" target="_blank">David?N?WeilEmail author |
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Institution: | (1) Mathematica Policy Research, 600 Maryland Avenue SW, Suite 550, Washington, DC 20024-2512, USA;(2) Department of Economics, Brown University, Box B, Providence, RI 02912, USA;(3) NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA;; |
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Abstract: | We examine the effects of population aging due to declining fertility and rising elderly life expectancy on consumption possibilities
in the presence of intergenerational transfers. Our analysis is based on a highly tractable continuous-time overlapping generations
model in which the population is divided into three groups (youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents) and lifecourse
transitions take place in a probabilistic fashion. We show that the consumption-maximizing response to greater longevity in
highly developed countries is an increase in fertility. However, with larger transfer payments, the actual fertility response
will likely be the opposite, leading to further population aging. |
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Keywords: | |
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