就业需求与工业化：一个新的分析框架

继 90年代初始 ,我国工业化进程中出现生产能力相对过剩 ,工业总产值增长率持续下降 ,从供给角度描述工业化过程的传统二元经济理论 ,已难以解释我国现阶段生产能力过剩的问题。因此 ,本文提出工业化就业与需求假说 ,构建二元经济理论模型 ,并实证分析改革以来我国就业需求与工业化变动 ,说明非农就业等需求因素对工业化的影响 ,为二元经济下的工业化过程提供了新的分析框架。

Employment,demand and industrialization: a new analysis framework

Since the beginning of 1990s, the surplus of productive capacity and sustained decrease of growth rate of total output value in industry has been found in the process of industrialization. Hence, the traditional dual economy theory which describes industrialization in terms of supply is not sufficient to interpret the surplus problem. In this paper, a industrialization employment and demand hypothesis is put forward, a dual economic theoretical framework is set up, the changes in employment demand and industrialization after the adoption of the reform are analyzed empirically, non farming employment demand on industrialization are illustrated, a new framework is offered for industrial process under the dual economy.