| 人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范云芳,孙波. 人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡关系研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2010, 25(7): 26-30 |
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| 作者姓名： | 范云芳 孙波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安财经学院,经济学院,陕西,西安,710100
2. 西北大学,经济管理学院,陕西,西安,710127 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对中美贸易失衡是否因人民币汇率调整而缓和这一问题,利用1980-2008年的年度贸易数据对中美贸易进行协整分析,检验汇率变动与出口贸易之间的马歇尔-勒纳条件并不满足,即人民币升值并不能改善中美贸易失衡。中美贸易失衡是中美双方进出口结构、贸易政策等众多因素共同作用的结果,逐步调整两国贸易结构和进出口政策是解决中美贸易失衡的根本出路。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易失衡 马歇尔-勒纳条件 人民币汇率 贸易结构 |
An Empirical Study on the Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Sino-US Trade Imbalance |
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| FAN Yun-fang,SUN Bo. An Empirical Study on the Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Sino-US Trade Imbalance[J]. Statistics & Information Tribune, 2010, 25(7): 26-30 |
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| Authors: | FAN Yun-fang SUN Bo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Economic,Xi＇an University of Finance and Economics,Xi＇an 710100,China;2.School of Economic and Management,Northwest University,Xi＇an 710127,China) |
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| Abstract: | Sino-US trade imbalance will ease because of the RMB exchange rate adjustment？ In this paper,co-integration analysis was made to the Sino-US trade data for 1980-2008,testing the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China export to United States,which found that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not satisfied,hat is the yuan revaluation will not improve Sino-US trade imbalance.Sino-US trade imbalance is contributed by many factors,such as import and export structure of two countries,trade policies and so on.Adjusting the structure of bilateral trade and trade policies is the fundamental way to solve the Sino-US trade imbalance. |
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| Keywords: | trade imbalance Marshall-Lerner condition RMB exchange rate trade structure |
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