工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的动态效应关系研究——以天津为例

工业化、城镇化和农业现代化三者关系的协调发展是实施城乡一体化的基础,它们相互作用并推动社会经济不断向前发展。使用1992-2011年时间序列数据,分别采用单位根检验、协整检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等经济计量方法,对天津工业化、城镇化与农业现代化之间的长期均衡与短期动态关系进行实证研究。研究发现:工业化、城镇化和农业现代化三者之间存在着长期的均衡关系。

Empirical Study on the Dynamic Effect of Industrialization,Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization： A Case Study of Tianjin

The coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is the foundation of integration between urban and rural areas; their interaction promotes social development. Using date from 1992-2011, the author adopts the econometric methods of Unit Root Test, Co Integration Test, VAR Model, Granger Causality, Impulse Re- sponse Function and Variance Decomposition to research the long-term equilibrium and short- term dynamic relationship among industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. It is found that there is a long term proportionate relationship among industrialization, urbaniza- tion and agricultural modernization. From the perspective of long-term planning, urbanization has influence on the agricultural modernization. On the same conditions, industrialization affects urbanization and agricultural modernization unconsciously.