| Abstract: | A farmer's crop mix is affected by the expected relative prices of the crops. A price forecasting error results in economic loss from planning a suboptimal mix. A new method of estimating economic loss due to forecasting error indicates that economic loss increased during the height of the Populist movement and then decreased. Using data for Kansas counties from 1882 to 1907, I estimate agricultural crop mix functions using a SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) procedure and calculate the economic loss due to forecasting error. Although new market opportunities must have made farmers better oth these nnnnrtunities increased the cost of price uncertainly. |
