| 人口概率预测方法及应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 田飞.人口概率预测方法及应用[J].西北人口,2011(5):9-13. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 田飞 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 安徽大学人口研究所; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目(08BRK010,主持人:田飞) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 队列因素法已经成为人口预测的标准模式。根据参数估计方法的差异又可将其分为场景预测和概率预测两大类。概率预测法认为未来人口参数值具有不确定性，因此预测结果应该用区间去描述最为科学。根据统计学的分类方法，还可将概率预测方法分为古典概率预测方法和现代概率预测方法。文章在介绍了两种概率预测方法的内容和数据之后，以安徽省为例，展示了古典概率预测方法的数据准备和预测结果。
|
| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 概率预测 队列因素法 安徽 |
Demographic Probabilistic Forecast Method and Its Application |
| |
| TIAN Fei.Demographic Probabilistic Forecast Method and Its Application[J].Northwest Population Journal,2011(5):9-13. |
| |
| Authors: | TIAN Fei |
| |
| Institution: | TIAN Fei(Department of Sociology,Institute of Population Research,Anhui University,Anhui,Hefei,230039) |
| |
| Abstract: | The cohort component method has been a standard model of population projection,and it could be divided into demographic scenarios forecast methods and demographic probabilistic forecast methods based on parameter evaluation difference.The probabilistic forecast method believes that the value of future demographic parameters would be not determined,soforecast value would be an interval and with science sense.The probabilistic forecast method should be classified into oldprobabilistic one and modern one accor... |
| |
| Keywords: | population projection probabilistic forecast the method of cohort-component Anhui |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
