基于非恒定影响的技术标准更迭与扩散研究

一代技术标准的产业化既面临同代标准的竞争,更受到前一代标准的紧逼,其影响因素复杂而且不断变化。基于非恒定影响的技术标准更迭与扩散模型,并以日本的PDC标准和WCDMA标准更迭为样本的实证分析,揭示技术标准产业化过程中的非恒定影响机理,以及促进技术标准更迭和新标准扩散的因素与途径。研究结论显示,在WCDMA标准扩散过程中,非恒定系数越小,WCDMA标准替代PDC标准的速度及其自身的扩散速度就越快,对于促进中国3G技术标准的全面产业化具有重要启示和政策含义。

A Research on Substitution and Diffusion in Successive Generations of Technological Standards Based on Non-invariable Influence

Industrialization of technological standard is confronted with competition of the same generation as well as press of the earlier generation,and it is influenced by complex and constantly changing factors.Substitution and diffusion model of successive generations of technological standards based on non-invariable influence were constructed.Empirical analysis based on the sample from the Japan’s PDC standard and WCDMA standard reveals the non-invariable influence mechanism in technological standard industrialization.This paper explores factors and ways promoting technological standards substitution and new standard diffusion.The findings show that the smaller the non-invariable coefficient the faster speed of WCDMA standard replacing PDC standard as well as the WCDMA standard diffusion,which has important enlightenments and policy implications to processing Chinese 3G technological standard industrialization.