Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua |
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| Authors: | Jessica E Todd Paul Winters and Guy Stecklov |
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| Institution: | (1) Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, 1800 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA;(2) Department of Economics, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA;(3) Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hebrew University, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, 91905, Israel |
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| Abstract: | Evaluating the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility is complicated given that changes in incentives to have children
take time to be incorporated into decision making and evaluation periods are usually quite brief. We explore the use of birth
spacing as a short-run indicator of the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility. The data come from a Nicaraguan
conditional cash transfer program that offers incentives for poor households to invest in children’s health, nutrition, and
education. We estimate a stratified Cox proportional hazard model and find that the program decreased the hazard of a birth,
indicating an increase in birth spacing. |
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