基于进口需求函数的中国石油进口影响因素研究

石油进口的大国模型分析表明,中国已成为第二大石油进口国,中国的经济增长带动了石油的进口,进而引发了石油进口价格的上涨。基于进口需求函数的计量分析表明,由于石油不仅是重要的能源,也是重要的化工原料,需求不会因价格上涨而明显减少,所以石油进口额与中国GDP、进口价格以及汇率正相关。为避免继续买涨不买跌,中国需要放开石油进口权;为避免汇率变动对石油进口的影响,应推进石油进口中的人民币结算。

Research on Influencing Factors of China 's Oil Import Based on Import Demand Function

The analysis of oil import based on big country situation shows that the growth of Chinese economy has led to the increase of oil import, which has resulted in the rise of oil import price. The quantitative analysis based on import demand function shows that, because oil is both important energy and import chemistry material, oil import value has positive correlation with China ''s GDP, import price and exchange rate. In order to avoid importing expensive oil, China should allow more companies to import oil, and promote settlement on RMB in oil import to avoid the impact of fluctuations in exchange on oil import.