人口因素对CO2排放的影响——基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示:人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。

The Effect of Demographic Factors on Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Panel Quantile Regression Analysis

Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2009 in China,using panel quantile regression model estimate the impact of demographic factors on China’s carbon dioxide emissions,the results showed that: Population size and urbanization are the main demographic factors which impact China’s carbon dioxide emissions,but the marginal effect of population size is large in the developed provinces,while the marginal effect of urbanization is larger in the less developed provinces;Smaller family trend impacts on carbon dioxide emissions differently by province.The effect is positive in some provinces and is not significant in the other provinces.Age structure is not yet a major demographic factors who led to change in carbon dioxide emissions;Comprehensive comparison,the impact of economic development on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the impact of demographic factors on it,the marginal effect of industry structure on carbon dioxide emissions is less than that of population size and urbanization,but the relationship between technological progress and carbon dioxide emissions are blurred.