长期变迁视角下中国证券业的市场结构和绩效研究

本文以产业组织理论为基础,从长期演化变迁的角度对中国证券业市场结构的变化进行了动态的历史性分析,并对证券业的市场结构与绩效之间的相关性作了全面的检验。我们的发现主要有:1.整个行业正处于由低集中产业向准中寡占产业过渡的阶段,市场集中度尚有较大的提升空间;2.已经初步形成一批具有相对竞争优势、占市场主导地位的综合性大券商;3.时间序列模型和截面回归模型的检验结果表明,证券公司的盈利水平与业务集中度并无显著的相关关系,但与股票市场走势正相关。

A Long-term Empirical Study on Mmarket Structure and Performance of Chinese Securities Industry

This paper is based on the modern industrial organization approach.It analyses the change of Chinese securities industry structure in the view of long-term and variance,and makes empirical tests on the relevance between market structure and performance.Our findings are: 1.the industry is now in the phase from low concentration ratio to semi-oligarchic industry.2.there has been a group of integrative security firms in the industry which have relative competition predominance and dominant status.3.time series analysis and cross-sectional analysis prove that there is not significant relevance between the performance of security firm and it's concentration ratio,while plus relevance between the performance and the stock market return.