| 基于ARIMA模型的山东省月降水量时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙苗,孔祥超,耿伟华.基于ARIMA模型的山东省月降水量时间序列分析[J].鲁东大学学报,2013(3):244-249. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙苗 孔祥超 耿伟华 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东科技大学测绘工程与技术学院,山东青岛266590 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省“泰山学者”建设工程专项经费资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用SAS和SPSS软件,结合相关的数学统计方法和时间序列分析方法,运用ARIMA模型进行建模,分析了山东省境内2000年到2009年的月降水量的变化趋势,对2010年的月降水量数据进行预测并与真实值进行对照.结果表明ARIMA模型在短期预测中能起到一定作用,所预测结果均在95%的置信区间内.
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| 关 键 词： | 月降水量 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 预测 山东省 |
Time Series Analysis on Monthly Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on ARIMA Model |
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| SUN Miao,KONG Xiang-chao,GENG Wei-hua.Time Series Analysis on Monthly Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on ARIMA Model[J].Ludong University Journal (Natural Science Edition),2013(3):244-249. |
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| Authors: | SUN Miao KONG Xiang-chao GENG Wei-hua |
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| Institution: | ( Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China) |
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| Abstract: | Using SAS and SPSS software, the model was constructed and the change trend of monthly precipitation in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2009 has been analyzed according to the related mathematical statistics method and time series analysis method. Furthermore, the monthly precipitation data of 2010 were predicted and compared with true value. Results show that the ARIMA model can play a role in the short-term prediction,and the prediction results are within the 95% confidence interval. |
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| Keywords: | monthly precipitation time series analysis ARIMA model prediction Shandong Province |
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