OFDI对中国国际收支影响的机理与实际测算

国际直接投资不仅会影响东道国国际收支，也会对投资母国国际收支产生影响。本文重点分析了对外直接投资对母国国际收支的影响机制，并构建了对外直接投资对母国国际收支影响的数理分析框架，研究表明对外直接投资通过投资效应、利润汇回效应和贸易效应所包含的七个渠道影响母国国际收支；对外直接投资初期会造成母国国际收支净效应为负的情形，但伴随对外直接投资存量的累积，国际收支净效应会逐步为正。最后本文测算了中国对外直接投资对其国际收支的影响，结果表明中国对外直接投资收益率大于国内投资收益率；近年来国际收支净效应持续为负，但对改善 “双顺差”模式起到了积极作用。

The Mechanism and Estimation of OFDI’s Effect on Balance of Payments in China

International direct investment not only affects the balance of payments of the host country, but also has an impact on the balance of payments of the home country. This paper focuses on the influence mechanism of Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) on balance of payments of the home country, and constructs the mathematical analysis framework of OFDI’s effect. It shows that: OFDI exerts impacts on balance of payments of the home country by the seven channels included in effects of investment, repatriation of profit, trade and so on; in the initial OFDI will cause the negative net effect of balance of payments for the home country, but with the accumulation of OFDI stock, the net effect of balance of payments will gradually be positive. Finally, this paper estimates OFDI’s impacts on Chinese balance of payments. It is shown that the rate of return on OFDI in China is greater than the rate of return on domestic investment. And in the recent years, the net effect on the balance of payments is continually negative, but it plays a positive part in improving the"double surplus”.