中国要素替代弹性估计

要素替代弹性是经济研究中的重要参数，对经济增长和要素分配研究至关重要。本文基于一般要素增强型CES生产函数，利用1978-2011年省级面板数据，以变系数面板模型估计我国替代弹性时间序列。主要发现为：我国替代弹性明显小于1（0.23-0.55之间），改革时期基本呈上升趋势；此时劳动增强型技术表现出资本偏向，构成近期我国劳动份额持续下降的重要原因。最后，对该领域未来发展方向进行展望。

Elasticity Estimates of Factor Substitution in China

As an important parameter in economics research, the elasticity of substitution (σ) plays a crucial role in economic growth and factor distribution of income.With China’s provincial data from 1978 to 2011, we use CES production function with general factor-augmenting technical progress to estimate σ series by variable parameter panel data model. The main findings are: (1) σ is significantly below unity (0.22-0.55), and shows an increasing trend in the Reform period; (2) so the labor-augmenting technical progress is capital-biased, which provides a reasonable explaination of decreasing labor’s income shares. At last, we give an outlook for future research.